What we have here is a failure to deter.
As someone who witnessed the final years of the Cold War, I remember how central the concept of deterrence was to our national security. For over four decades Americans lived with the constant risk of nuclear war. Despite left-wing calls for disarmament or a “nuclear freeze,” our government kept the peace through a strategy of “mutual assured destruction.” We maintained large stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the hope that this would deter the Soviets from launching a nuclear or conventional attack against us. Despite some close calls, the strategy of deterrence worked. The Soviets did not attack us, and we maintained a fragile peace until communism collapsed and the apparent threat of nuclear war was removed, at least temporarily. In the fourth year of President Biden’s Administration, Americans can justly ask where has the deterrence gone?
In the run-up to the war in Ukraine, President Biden launched a prolonged and extensive campaign to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine. And Biden failed. Since the Ukraine war started only six months after America’s humiliating and disorganized withdrawal from Afghanistan, the credibility of US deterrent power was hardly at its zenith. More importantly, Biden undercut his own efforts by violating all the rules of deterrence America had operated under during the Cold War. One of the most crucial aspects of deterrence is the element of uncertainty and unpredictability. Telling your enemy what you will not do if he attacks is obviously foolhardy. Keeping your enemy guessing about the extent of your possible response is necessary to complicate the enemy’s planning and maximize the enemy’s uncertainty about the risks of a possible attack. That is why, during the Cold War, the United States never ruled out the option of a nuclear first strike. President Biden threw this playbook out the window by publicly announcing, during the run-up to the invasion, that the U.S. would not send troops to Ukraine.[1] He made it clear that our retaliation would be limited to economic sanctions. Instead of making Putin worry about whether his threats might draw American troops into Ukraine, Biden helpfully simplified Putin’s decision-making process by announcing that this possibility was inapplicable. Putin was able to focus on how to cope with economic sanctions, and his team was able to do exactly that, devising an economic strategy that has allowed Russia to not only endure sanctions but also profit from the war.[2]
Once the shooting started in Ukraine, President Biden continued to disregard established principles of deterrence. While Ukrainian President Zelensky was bravely asking for ammunition, not a ride, President Biden was ruling out no-fly zones in Ukraine. Despite calls by respected foreign policy analysts, and an official request by Ukraine, for no-fly zones, President Biden publicly stated that he would not do this because any confrontation between US and Russian pilots would mean World War III.[3] Maintaining deterrence requires a perceived willingness to fight if necessary, not a publicly expressed fear of conflict. Once again, Biden announced to Putin what we would not do. Without having to worry about the possibility of no-fly zones, which could have exposed his weakness to the Russian people, Putin had less incentive to negotiate, and the war has dragged on. At the time the US and NATO rejected no-fly zones, President Zelensky bluntly declared “all the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you, because of your weakness. The alliance has given the green light to the bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages by refusing to create a no-fly zone.”[4]
The failure to deter was seen on a more massive and tragic scale on October 7, 2023. Hamas launched an attack of incalculable brutality against Israel- the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust. Such an attack could only have been perpetrated by people who were not afraid of the United States. Superpower status is supposed to yield respect, not indifference or, worse yet, contempt, but that is exactly what is being directed at the United States in the Middle East.
To add insult to injury, the Houthi rebels of Yemen have now demonstrated that they are not deterred by American power. Since November the Houthis have been attacking and hijacking cargo ships bound for Israel in the Red Sea. The United States issued public warnings for the Houthis to stop, to no effect. In January, the United States and Britain finally began air strikes against the Houthis, but the rebels have defiantly continued their attacks.[5] On Friday, January 26, 2024, a Houthi missile struck an oil tanker, setting it ablaze. On Saturday, January 25, 2024, the Houthis attempted to strike an American warship, the USS Carney. President Biden has publicly acknowledged that the Houthis have not been deterred by recent American airstrikes against them.[6]
It is time for Americans to wrap their minds around how dangerous our world has become. The United States is unable to deter or even influence the behavior of a rebel group in Yemen. And even a concerted diplomatic effort to deter Russia from invading Ukraine failed spectacularly. Living in a world in which no one fears or respects you is an unpleasant enterprise, as the American people will soon find out when the high prices caused by the Houthis’ disruption of international shipping lanes begin to affect the American economy.[7] Restoring the credibility of America’s deterrent posture must be the top priority of our next President; the incumbent is not up to the task and does not even seem interested in it.
[1] Nahal Toosi, “The line Biden won’t cross on Ukraine,” Politico, February 23, 2022 at 3:02 p.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 9:28 a.m.
[2] David McHugh, “Russia’s economy holds up, but growing challenges test Putin,” AP News, March 13, 2023 at 8:37 a.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 9:32 a.m.
[3] Tracy Wilkinson, “Ukraine wants a no-fly zone. Why do the US and NATO reject the idea?” Los Angeles Times, March 8, 2022 at 10:58 a.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 9:38 a.m.; Susan Milligan, “Biden Stands Firm Against No-Fly Zone as Zelensky Prepares to Address Congress,” US News and World Report, March 15, 2022, accessed January 28, 2024 at 9:42 a.m.
[4] Tracy Wilkinson, “Ukraine wants a no-fly zone. Why do the US and NATO reject the idea?” Los Angeles Times, March 8, 2022 at 10:58 a.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 9:38 a.m.
[5] BBC News, “Who are the Houthis and why are they attacking Red Sea ships?” December 22, 2023, updated January 23, 2024, accessed January 28, 2024 at 9:53 a.m.
[6] Zeke Miller, Aamer Mahdhani and Tara Copp, “US forces strike Houthi sites in Yemen as Biden says allied action hasn’t yet stopped ship attacks,” AP News, January 19, 2024 at 10:02 a.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 10:00 a.m.; Mark Scott, “Houthi rebels fire missile at US warship, escalating Mideast crisis,” Politico, January 27, 2024 at 10:27 a.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 10:03 a.m.
[7] Paul Wallace and Alex Longley, “How Red Sea Crisis Raises Inflation, Supply Chain Worries Anew,” Bloomberg, January 24, 2024 at 6:22 a.m., accessed January 28, 2024 at 10:06 a.m.; Noah Berman, “How Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea threaten global shipping,” PBS Newshour, January 12, 2024 at 3:45 p.m, accessed January 28, 2024 at 10:13 a.m.